Asbestos: between 68,000 and 100,000 deaths by 2050 - i five

Asbestos: between 68,000 and 100,000 deaths by 2050

In a report published on 14 August 2014, the High Council of Public Health (HSCP) estimates that "between 2009 and 2050 it is to be expected that between 2009 and 2050 there will be a number of lung cancers due to asbestos in the range of 50,000 to 75,000". It should be added to this "18,000 to 25,000 deaths due to mesothelioma, not to mention other cancers such as those of the larynx or ovaries for which the responsibility for asbestos was confirmed by the International Centre for Research on Cancer (Circ) in 2009" . These estimates are based on work by the Institute for Health Watch (InVS).

Mesothelioma is a cancer of the pleura, which in 80% of cases can be attributed to exposure to asbestos. This cancer usually occurs many years after exposure, as do lung cancers, of which 13% can also be attributed to asbestos, according to "a low estimate" of the InVS.

Stabilization of mesothelium cases
The InVS also estimated between 61,000 and 118,000 deaths from asbestos between 1995 and 2009, ranging from 25,000 to 36,000 deaths from mesothelioma and between 36,000 and 82,000 lung cancer deaths from exposure to exposure asbestos.

In 2007 in 2007, the number of lung cancers attributable to asbestos was estimated at between 1,500 and 2,400, compared to just over a thousand deaths from mesothelioma.

The InVS also notes that the number of new cases of mesothelioma appears to have stabilized in the 2000s among both women and men, who are significantly more affected by this cancer (69% of men versus 31% of women).

Lowering the threshold

Since 1996, all buildings have been regulated that as soon as the level exceeds 5 fibres per litre of air, asbestos removal or containment work must be undertaken. This value corresponds to the average level that was measured in urban air in the 1970s.

Seized in 2010 by the health authorities to decide on the definition of a new threshold for triggering asbestos protection measures, the HSCP had been more cautious. Experts had proposed lowering the threshold for the start of work to two fibres per litre from 2015 and then to one fibre in 2020.

But the HSCP considered it "illusory" in its report to lower this threshold "as long as the current regulations (...) are not properly applied" with regard to, in particular, tracking and measurements. "Premature lowering could even be counterproductive, as it could lead to a significant increase in analyses, work and waste to be managed, in a context of lack of preparedness for the risks induced," adds the HSCP, which advocates lowering the "in the first instance" from 1 January 2020.

The National Asbestos Victims' Association (Andeva) responded by asking the Minister of Health to ignore the position of the HSCP and to immediately lower the threshold for managing asbestos risk in buildings (...) in accordance with recommendations of the National Food Safety Agency (Anses). The latter had advocated in 2009 to lower the threshold to 0.5 fibre per litre

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